Monday Morning Update

We're looking for highs today in the lower 90s with northeast winds and partly cloudy conditions.  The fire danger will remain elevated today, but the weekend rains were a welcome sight across drought stricken northern OK.   

Our forecast, at least for the short term, will be dominated by mostly dry conditions and high in the lower to mid-90s.  The front that cleared the area yesterday is now located to our south allowing northeast surface winds to move across NE OK bringing slightly drier air to the region.  Our temps will respond today with highs in the 91 to 94 degree range.  Any isolated storms will more than likely be confined to areas in East Central OK or more southward along the Red River into far NE Texas.  The big weather story is obviously Isaac and the movement and intensity during the next 48 to 72 hours.  The track adjustments over the weekend have continued to be more left or west of the previous tracks from last week.  We continue to have some model differences, large differences, regarding the exact path and landfall of the tropical cyclone, but regardless of the exact path, the impacts along the Southern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, and Northern Florida panhandle will be widespread.  Since the storm will be approaching the region during the next 36 hours, hurricane warnings have been posted for these areas and mandatory evacuations have been ordered for some low lying locations along the coastal area.  A state of emergency has been declared in some areas along the hurricane warning zone by the individual state governments.   

The big questions remain regarding the outcome of the landfall hurricane area.  The GFS is about 300 miles further west (closer to New Orleans) compared to the EURO which is located closer to the Fort Walton Beach-Pensacola, Mobile area.  I must continue to remind readers this track may still change during the next 24 hours, including another adjustment further west.  We do have at least two solutions that bring the system up East Texas and into Eastern OK by Friday, but the model consensus keeps the system more eastward bring the remnant low across Ark and points eastward into the weekend. This means, currently, our forecast will include only a small mention of precipitation or clouds from Isaac for the Friday time period.  Any track adjustments left or west of the current projections could eventually require an increase of storm chances for Eastern Ok or Western Arkansas. 

I'll continue to post information regarding Isaac on my Facebook page at

 http://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

I also, at times, use twitter to post information.

@alancrone

Tulsa Oilers:

Thanks to the fine folks with the Tulsa Oilers for inviting me to be a part of the 4th Annual Tulsa Oilers Alumni game.  I was asked to be an honorary assistant coach for the "white team" and had a super great time.  Thanks again for the invitation and I look forward to opening night, October 26th, at the BOK center to kick off  the 2012-13 Tulsa Oilers Season.